I'm skeptical of claims like this.

After all, you can go and be a goat herder right now, and yet you are presumably not doing this.

Nothing is stopping you being a goat herder - the place that is paying you for solving business problems will continue just fine if you leave, after all. Your presence there is not required.

See my replies below - as often on HN you assume too much and construct a made up person to get mad at:

- first the place that is paying me to solve problems will NOT be just fine when I suddenly leave

- second I need UBI or some AI-enabled utopia to be ushered in to live comfortably as goat herder

- third I do have a concrete plan to get out, but it will take me a couple of years to realise

> - first the place that is paying me to solve problems will NOT be just fine when I suddenly leave

Yes they will!

No one, not even the chief officers or the shareholders of a company are irreplaceable. Well, maybe you're the only tech guy in a 5-company outfit?

They'll replace you just fine.

> - second I need UBI or some AI-enabled utopia to be ushered in to live comfortably as goat herder

Well, that's not really relevant to your assertion, is it?

>>> I really really hope an AI will do this work and solve all the “business problems” so I can go and be a goat herder

After all, UBI as an outcome is not dependent on AI solving all the business problems you currently solve.

IOW, whether UBI comes to pass or not is completely independent of "AI takes our jobs".

The chief officers and/or shareholders are probably the ones who are the most replaceable….

AI utopia is not needed for UBI that is true - but it will be much easier to become reality if “all the jobs” are taken.

Aside from all the snark - I think that the fundamental societal problem is that there will always be some shitty jobs that no one wants to do and there needs to be some system to force some people to do these jobs - call it capitalism, communism, or marriage. There is no way around this basic fact of the human condition

Go herd goats. You don't need to wait for AI to destroy your livelihood.

Herding goats doesn't solve the interesting technical problem I'm trying to solve.

Point is: if that problem is solvable without me, that's the win condition for everyone. Then I go herd goats (and have this nifty tool that helps me spec out an optimal goat fence while I'm at it).

> Point is: if that problem is solvable without me, that's the win condition for everyone.

The problem is solvable without you. I don't even need to know what the problem actually is, because the odds of you being one of the handful of the people in the world who are so critical that the world notices their passing is so low, I have a better chance of winning a lottery jackpot than of you being some critical piece of some solution.

I completely disagree - I think it’s the other way around.

Solving the problem - no matter what problem it is - is extremely dependent on you and every single human being (or animal for that matter) is a critical piece of their environment and circumstances.

Yeah, but there's nothing like some sweet, sweet justification.

I need that sweet AI-enabled UBI first to do it comfortably

I was thinking of buying land and planting beetroot, which I would be picking by hand, cutting into thin plasters and freeze-drying for sale.

I have buy-in from a former co-worker with whom I remained in touch over the years, so there will be at least two of us working the fields.

I unironically have a 5 year plan to get out of tech and into something more “real”. I want to work on something that helps actual humans not these “business problems”