> Think more of “a pharma lab wants to explore all possible interactions for a particular drug”
Pharma does not trust OpenAI with their data, and they don't work on tokens for any of the protein or chemical modeling.
There will undoubtedly be tons of deep nets used by pharma, with many $1-10k buys replacing more expensive physical assays, but it won't be through OpenAI, and it won't be as big as a consumer business.
Of course there may be other new markets opened up but current pharma is not big enough to move the needle in a major way for a company with an OpenAI valuation.
My claim is that there will exist some company which pharma is willing to trust for AI research…they presumably trust Microsoft with their email today.
But my bigger claim is that ~half the Fortune 500 will be able to profitably deploy AI with spends in the tens or hundreds of millions per year quite soon. Not that pharma itself is a major contributor to that effect.
But for 'AI' to be a winner-take-all market, it seems that the winner would have to be using customer data to improve the 'AI'. Not only do you have to believe that one of these (relatively) under-capitalized upstarts can corral the money, but also that they can convince (enterprise) customers to 'fork over' their proprietary data to only one provider, and also that the provider can then charge a monopoly rent.
Those all seem possible, but I wouldn't assign greater than a 50% probability to any of them, and the valuations seem to imply near-certainty.
Pharma does not trust OpenAI with their data, and they don't work on tokens for any of the protein or chemical modeling.
There will undoubtedly be tons of deep nets used by pharma, with many $1-10k buys replacing more expensive physical assays, but it won't be through OpenAI, and it won't be as big as a consumer business.
Of course there may be other new markets opened up but current pharma is not big enough to move the needle in a major way for a company with an OpenAI valuation.