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It actually already collapsed in 2022-2023 according to projections from March 2022:

https://theconversation.com/the-russian-economy-is-headed-fo...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-biggest-economic...

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vlad...

nm, Im sure the more up to date projections are accurate and the projections from 2022, 2023, 2024 and early 2025 were abberations.



Russian Banks Fear Debt Crisis Is Coming as War Strains Economy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/russian-b... | https://archive.today/3DUEG - June 26th, 2025

> Tensions among Putin’s top officials over risks to the economy spilled into the open at the flagship St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week.

> “We are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a panel discussion in which Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina argued the economy was experiencing a necessary cooling. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged “we’re going through a cold spell now.”

> Putin made his position clear in a speech the following day. “Some specialists, experts, point to the risks of stagnation and even recession,” he said. “This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstances.”




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