China has no reason to take over Taiwan militarily. They already have like 60% of trade with it, and that share is only going to grow in the future, simply because they are so close. It's the US who is worried to be cut off Taiwan.
Anyway, China dominating chip and AI will likely happen soon. They don't really need Taiwan for that.
> China has no reason to take over Taiwan militarily.
That's your opinion, not theirs. The CCP has staked its legitimacy on their ability to "unify China" (take Taiwan by force) and they've been spending a great deal of money to develop the necessary military capability. This is true whether or not you think their desire seems rational.
And by the way, it's not about computer chips. It never was. The computer chips thing is techy tunnel vision, tech people see the tech thing as the important thing, but China has wanted to take over Taiwan for far longer than Taiwanese chips have been at all relevant. It's not about chips; it's about national pride, prestige, and face.
What I am saying is China will effectively take over Taiwan's economy first (by being a good trading partner), and that's pretty much all they need to do. It's easier than invasion, of course we don't know the future, maybe China will do something irrational but why assume that? What would be foolish for Taiwanese to try to block China out economically at the behest of US. (That might actually trigger a military invasion from China, it's actually what Ukraine did before the Russian invasion in 2014.)
In response to anonylizard:
"TSMC is banned from exporting high-end chips to China."
It's amusing that it's US, defender of trade freedom, who gives orders to Taiwan, with who to trade?
"The Taiwanese want to be an US ally, and not end up destroyed like Hong-Kong, hence they'll comply with US sanctions."
Why would they want that, if they have 60% or more of their trade with China, share culture, and are closer to them? I think it's also a misconception that Hong-Kong got destroyed, but I am not sure. Obviously it has not the same economic weight in the West as it used to, but that is true for all former colonies.
Look, I agree that it would be better if China was a liberal democracy (although I also believe that liberal democracy has only limited effect on limiting imperialism, as is obvious from the British and US example). But if the Taiwanese people will be forced to choose between economic depression (due to some more sanctions on trade with China) or losing democracy, I sure hope, for the sake of their future, they will choose the latter. And I am worried US will force them to make this decision, exactly for the reason of "national pride, prestige, and face".
> maybe China will do something irrational but why assume that
1. Because they say they will.
2. Their military spending backs up what they're saying. It's not just hot air from politicians, they really are committed to building the ability to take Taiwan by force.
> I think it's also a misconception that Hong-Kong got destroyed, but I am not sure.
It depends on who you ask.
Foreign entities who used to operate politically in Hong Kong got obliterated due to the national security law. (Yes, it used to be "legal" for foreign entities to do funny things with the intention of subverting Chinese interests in PRC soil. Imagine that!)
Hong-Kongers who refused to believe the PRC (and CCP) were ultimately in power after 1997 had their dreams and illusions "destroyed". Many migrated elsewhere.
(And then there's aftershocks due to COVID policies having to align with mainland China's, and financial/property markets being tied to China which is currently kind of struggling, but the causation with post-2019 politics is not very clear.)
Personally, I think the doomer narrative w.r.t. Hong Kong is overblown, unless you fall into the two categories above.
So you're saying that "China will effectively take over Taiwan's economy", but it "would be foolish for Taiwanese to try to block China out economically".
If you're using the economy as a weapon it makes complete sense for Taiwan to block those ties.
Your opinion, not theirs. The CCP has repeatedly promised to "reunify" China. If they can't do that, then they fail the bar they've set for themselves. And they wouldn't be making, and repeatedly reiterating, this promise if it wasn't taken seriously by the Chinese people.
Xi's personal leadership lies on a promise of taking Taiwan in the forseeable future as part of the "restoration" of Chinese power. Anyone who disagrees honestly has no idea about Chinese political circles.
TSMC is banned from exporting high-end chips to China. The Taiwanese want to be an US ally, and not end up destroyed like Hong-Kong, hence they'll comply with US sanctions.
China is still far behind the US in high-end chips. Sure they are catching up. But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will.
The first mover can have overwhelming advantages. If the US gets to AI first, dominates the global AI market, China facing demographic collapse, economic decline, will lose the ability to compete for supremacy
> But China is on borrowed time due to population collapse. China will run out of young engineers far more quickly than the US will.
And the US can attract foreign engineers far better than China ever will. For many, many reasons, whether it is the language (English is far more common as a second language than Chinese, even though Chinese is among the top spoken as a first. And Chinese is ridiculously hard to learn, it's not just the writing system, the spoken language being a tonal language is not helpful either.), the capital - US corporations pay better, the higher quality of life/work environment etc.
This is what happens when people foreign to Chinese corporate culture have to deal with it (the first link is about Taiwan but they're not too dissimilar when it comes down to this):
> Chang, speaking last year about Taiwan’s competitiveness compared to the U.S., said that “if [a machine] breaks down at one in the morning, in the U.S. it will be fixed in the next morning. But in Taiwan, it will be fixed at 2 a.m.” And, he added, the wife of a Taiwanese engineer would “go back to sleep without saying another word.”
No, I don't want to work for this kind of asshole.
> Although US and Singapore teams aren't expected to do 996 — I work normal US working hours — the reality is that US employees still often attend late night meetings to collaborate with teams in Asia.
> The lack of process, mentorship, standardized performance review, and internal documentation means that it's harder to learn best practices and mature in your profession.
Oof.
The US can afford a population decline more than many other nations of the earth, and it is continously draining brain power from the rest of the world. Many of the more talented programmers I've known as a French living in France moved to the US for greener pasture. Americans should not have too many worries about the future: if it ever gets bad for them, it means the rest of the world will suffer even harder.
Sometimes leaders can still make not rational actions. Putin still didn't need to invade Ukraine. I think the same can happen with Taiwan. For me I also believe "they don't really need Taiwan" but I think a lot of Chinese people think about it not in economical reason but national/historical and military reason - many of them say that china is really afraid if US will start putting their own military bases in Taiwan so they supposed to don't care much about Taiwan as more wanna control the land.
Don't really want to defend Putin, but consider that Russia would at the very least lose the naval base in Crimea, if the Ukraine entered NATO. Also, in 2013, the EU put an ultimatum to Ukraine to choose between the free trade with EU or free trade with Russia.
Perhaps Putin's action isn't as irrational as it seems?
Russia losing free trade with Ukraine is pretty much nothing compared to the economic damage caused by the sanctions, and loss in gas sales to the EU.
Putin's action would have been rational if he had captured Kyiv in a couple of days or weeks, and managed to install a puppet government. IMO the whole thing was based on bad intel, lies, corruption and yes-men who told their superiors what they want to hear, rather than what was the truth about Ukraine's defense capabilities. After that Putin couldn't back off without losing his face, and obviously loss of human lives and economic damage mean nothing compared to that to him.
Anyway, China dominating chip and AI will likely happen soon. They don't really need Taiwan for that.