> “I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”
He has since revised his estimate down to 20-60%. Which is still a lot, of course, but I think reflects the uncertainty here. He's also been very clear about mitigating factors and the uncertainty on his twitter account.
So, basically, you proved my point that everyone is so damn eager to talk about this that they'll make claims without sufficient evidence and scare people into distress.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso...
> “I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”