Having dollar being the worlds currency is not necessarily a good thing. Yes, you can borrow at low interests rate for a while. But guess what? Those are still debts. And eventually rates rise due to inflation. Now you have hollowed out your industrial base and you are stuck with tons of debts.
Even if dollar gets weaker, better to have less debts and more industrialization
Inflation and the "hollowing of your industrial base" are not inevitably connected, and in the case of the USA, have almost no connection to each other at all.
Both you and OP are not looking at this from the right angle. The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping.
US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the have that right.
And China has shown that agreement with them has no value. Remember that China promised trump in term 1 to massively import US goods and reduce fentanyl, in part to slow trumps tariff down. They did neither of those things. Trump hasn’t forgotten that.
Decoupling from China will lead to China annex Taiwan sooner. China will have the USA and the world by the balls then, so not sure we want that to happen quicker.
And I don't think anyone is calling themselves allies of the USA right now. The whole world is looking to decouple from the USA. Europe is completely over the USA, they can't rely on them for leadership, protection or for trade.
From a tech perspective, expect Europe to decouple from the USA from an economic and cultural perspective in the next decade. Smartest thing Europe can do is to create alternatives to US services, build its own defense industry and stop looking at the USA for any leadership.
is TSMC not currently building a plant in the US? and ASML are Dutch, so they're not at risk. I’m not saying that China taking Taiwan wouldn't be a massive strategic boon, but I don't think it would be "having the world by the balls" by any means
TSMC has not committed to a US plant that applies their most advanced technology. Currently, they are going to produce chips with larger slower features, some generations behind their state of the art -- that's commercially very useful, and a good idea, but in no way replaces the state of the art chips that they produce in Taiwan. Alas.
do you not think that if China invaded Taiwan, the top minds there would just leave and go elsewhere? the machines they use are built in the Netherlands. I know it's not quite as simple as that, but I don't think it'd be the end of the world like people are saying. I think worse would be the precedent it would set.
Other companies have the same EUV machines. TSMC also made the good decision in hindsight to make an early bet on those machines.
We know TSMC is dominant - the real knowledge of how they are doing that is in the heads of people working at TSMC. Or maybe better to say that something is missing from the competitors? Process? Management? Everything?
Cadence and Synopsys are US companies that need to know many of the technical parameters of TSMC processes. They might know more.
America only cared about Taiwan because it warehoused the exiled American friendly government that had a historical claim to power and could potentially be reinstalled.
As time goes on that becomes less and less relevant. Might be time to cut and run.
> Decoupling from China will lead to China annex Taiwan sooner. China will have the USA and the world by the balls then, so not sure we want that to happen quicker.
That seems to be over-rating the importance of Taiwan. If Taiwan sank into the sea tomorrow that'd be a catastrophe and the world would be worse off. But not that badly worse off. Life would continue. China's main global lever comes from the power of their unparalleled-in-history industrial strength and the aura of leadership they are building up internationally because they are substantially more peaceful than the US.
The peacefulness is probably not going to last, unfortunately, but until they change tack it is what it is.
No need, the United States of America already has more surface and underground nuclear test locations than any other nation on earth (IIRC), even more if atmospheric tests are included as those drifted fallout onto US ground surface.
There have been 2,121 tests done since the first in July 1945, involving 2,476 nuclear devices
has been called "the most irradiated, nuclear-blasted spot on the face of the earth".
In March 2009, TIME identified the 1970 Yucca Flat Baneberry Test, where 86 workers were exposed to radiation, as one of the world's worst nuclear disasters.
"The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping." You literally made this up. There has been no announcement about this from the admin. Its all just speculation.
Seeing as there is near total disconnect between what this admin says and what it demonstrably does (let alone the disconnect from reality entirely), why would anyone take anything they say at face value?
There is zero signal coming from any of these folk's mouths.
>>> US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the have that right.
Yes, they have the right, but it doesn’t mean this is the right way. Consumers don’t suddenly stop consuming, and factories in the world don’t immediately start producing. This is like a slow flywheel; had we been almost spinning and ready to jump, it would make sense. This is not that.
Also, China is a super power which controls more than factories today. I agree they need to be checked, but sudden changes are not the way. I wish we did it by building trust with allies and then pushing China. Right now, even our allies are wary of us.
Isn't this bit naive? Because in order to decouple, one would expect that there would be policies to actually prepare for production inside US and then apply tariffs. Not other way around.
If the goal was to decouple from China then tarrifs would only be on China and we would encourage trade to move from China to other countries. The administrations actions have the opposite effect. It says the US is untrustworthy even to it's allies and maybe siding with China is not so bad. Note I don't like or trust the Chinese government and don't think other governments should try to get closer to them but Trump's actions make such moves much more likely
At the very least any nation that depends on the US for goods should probably be looking to other sources where possible and increasing support for them since even if the US is useful for now, we're clearly unstable and incompetent which makes us unreliable and risky.
> In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on
Why on earth would you be on the side of a country like this? Why we should be an ally of the US right now, if Trump can't even uphold agreements he signed himself 5 years ago? What guarantees do we have that, as soon as we decouple from China, the US won't treat us as a vassal because we gave up our only alternative? The only rational choice is to either be neutral or ally with China.
It looks like the consensus response is other countries embracing more multilateralism. This is a huge opportunity for proponents and governments that promote multilateralism to take charge and make it happen. Ex: China has restricted trade with Aus since 2020 because they, essentially, insulted China/didn't restrict their speech in ways that China wanted. This provides an opportunity for this to be rolled back, which is economically win-win (as most free trade is). Expect to see this sort of thing many times over between many countries in the world. Of course this is rooted in the fact that having ex-US trading partners is no significantly more valuable.
There is the second point to mention too though, which is that China is not exactly an exemplar of open markets and free trade, which is why you are not seeing many countries ally with China and form a united front against the US's trade rampage. Looking beyond the deranged policies, there are some truths in saying that China is a currency manipulator, has imbalanced trade to such a degree it causes problems in other economies, and even the somewhat more "far fetched" points about the unsustainability of a permanent trade deficit do have some truth on some level.
That is why, yes, you are seeing the EU normalize trade relations with China, but there are important caveats, like discussions about China having an expert quota and even internally capping production numbers within their own economy are on the table front and center. This would have never happened before, because China's strategy was to peg a low currency, export, and extinguish industries ex-China. Wish to some level is part of free trade, but it is underpinned in China with state sponsorship to a higher degrees in most trading partners are comfortable with (which is of course countered by the allure of cheap goods).
So another view would be that parties like the EU have new leverage against China that they can use to cut trade deals that strip out some of the abusive practices that made them uncomfortable in the past. If China is then willing to move on a bit from these approaches then the net outcome should be beneficial for the world of course.
I think that many players see the dangers of taking binary sides now more than ever. And indeed, skilled negotiators should see the advantages of playing these forces against each other to get what is best for them. In the face of the recent outrageous events, I would expect a sudden outburst of pragmatism elsewhere.
As an Australian who has spent decades watching the trade and resources markets it was notable that Australia, NZ, UK, Canada, and much of the world started taking calls from China and meetings with ambassadors.
The Trump plan to "decouple from China" was verging on dividing the world into the US and everybody else .. a large reason behind the partial rollback.
Countries are now openly rejecting China's offer to join hands .. but still sitting on the possibility of further deals with China should the US tariff insanity continue.
> Remember that China promised trump in term 1 to massively import US goods and reduce fentanyl
China stopped selling unlicensed fentanyl to the USofA, it later stopped supplying fentanyl to both Mexico and Canada.
The problem was that criminals in the USofA and Mexico purchased precursor chemicals in bulk and made their own fentanyl. Restricting precursors led to pre-precursors being purchased in bulk for drug labs to make their own precursors in order to make fentanyl.
The fentanyl problem continued under Trump and rapidly grew in size during his first term.
In 2021, Mr. Biden issued an executive order imposing sanctions on individuals and companies engaged in the illicit opioid trade. His Treasury Department put sanctions on more than 300 individuals and entities, freezing entire networks of fentanyl suppliers and traffickers out of the international financial system.
In 2023 and 2024 he identified China as a major illicit drug-producing country for its role in the synthetic opioid trade — a blow to the reputation of China’s chemical industry.
Simultaneously, the Biden administration pushed U.S. law enforcement agencies to conduct aggressive investigations and build indictments against dozens of Chinese citizens and companies that were trafficking fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States.
[..] Biden secured a personal commitment from President Xi Jinping to restart counternarcotics cooperation in November 2023
[..] And we made progress. International fentanyl supply chains showed signs of disruption, forcing traffickers to change sources and tactics.
Together with other diplomatic initiatives and an expansive public health campaign, the number of lethal fentanyl overdoses in the United States has dropped.
In the 12 months ending September 2024, overdose deaths were down an estimated 24 percent from the year prior.
What has Trump done now he's back in office? Destroyed any cooperation with China on counternarcotics cooperation.
Tariffs alone will not push China’s government to help reduce drug overdose deaths in the United States. In fact, with Beijing already imposing retaliatory tariffs and proclaiming that it’s “ready to fight till the end,” Mr. Trump’s blunt-force tactics might drive China to cooperate less on fentanyl, not more.
With the stakes as high as they are, American communities cannot afford a miscalculation.
> And China has shown that agreement with them has no value
Unfortunately they still have much more value than agreements with the US and Trump specifically. Which Canada and Mexico found out the hard way.
Of course the probability that Trump actually forgot that he was the one who no signed USMCA and none of his “advisors” dared to tell him is not insignificant..
to be fair, I also made quite a lot of profit in stocks in the last few days without any inside knowledge of the whitehouse. it was a fairly safe bet that these tariffs were not going to last forever, and even if they were, there'd be reprieves
They know what they are doing. The goal is decoupling from China. They raised tariffs on everyone to see which countries stood with US and which stood with China. Once each country has made their allegiance clear, they delay the deadline to give more time for negotiation. They likely want every ally to raise their tariffs on China to be very very high, to avoid any more transshipping from China.
Presumably because those were in retaliation for the steel and aluminum tariffs, not the reciprocal tariffs. It takes them time to respond because the EU members must vote on it. We have yet to see what their action will be with the reciprocal tariffs.
You’re joking, but it’s true. I’ve been living in Turkey on and off and I’m convinced that slow changing rules are indeed a blessing.
Unlike Europe, in Turkey rules and everything is changing all the time, you can’t count on anything to be the same the next 5 years. No one in the institutions knows how everything works, they only follow the computer instructions. You are getting a loan? its a mystery if you will be able to get the stated amount because if you are buying a house down the road the computer may ask for the energy efficiency rating and limit the amount based on that. They will say that it is to promote energy efficient buildings but that regulation will remain only for a year or two- not enough to change buildings practices but enough to limit the loans given without explicitly limiting the loans given.
It’s a horrible thing, you can’t plan anything and those with connections end up catching all the good temporary situations because the got tipped. The moment the masses start realizing the opportunity, the rules chage.
It has become a tool for giving favors to loyalists and created a lot of horrible people who got “lucky” with their investments. When the politicians feel like paying loyalists, they will change something in the law that will allow for previously non-developable land to become developable and loyalist will get tipped that they should buy the land before prices increase. It will be something non-obvious, like something about changing the category of a road or something that changes the status of the land when appealed.
UK has had a stable system for many hundreds of years. I don't think it's something that can't be done at the country level, you don't need the EU to do this too!
I find it curiously useful that Trump’s blatant lying can be used as a shibboleth. E.g.: they’re not reciprocal tariffs, so almost everyone calling them that is a “true believer” that accepts Trump at his word.
Ok, what do you call them so you don't confuse that round of tariffs with other ones? "April 2 tariffs" doesn't work because, while that day was when they were announced, the steel and aluminum tariffs also went into effect on that same day.
> they’re not reciprocal tariffs, so almost everyone calling them that is a “true believer” that accepts Trump at his word.
I disagree. Non Trump aligned media called them reciprocal tariffs. I don't know if identifying the lie was too controversial or they couldn't understand the equation the administration published. And non Trump aligned people called them reciprocal tariffs because they heard or read the phrase.
I’m not sure they need to coordinate, except for the state of US Politics. Take the hit now, then seek a long term better deal elsewhere, with more stable policies.
It’s a full decoupling of number 1 and number 2 economies in the world - of course it’s messy. If you can’t stomach the turbulence, stay in safe instruments
The reason they have reduced all tariffs back down to 10% even for the countries that were obviously transshipping (Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia) is that they need time to negotiate with those countries, to make sure these countries now put similarly high tariffs (100%+) on China, so that transshipping is reduced to nothing
If China doesn’t counter whatever the F we “counter” that would significantly weaken its position with every other country… and the wheel turns with this line of thinking…
except of course Trump brought a knife to a gunfight :)
Only, China isn't actively negotiating tariffs with every other country right now, so whether they retaliate won't impact their situation the same as it does from the US's point of view.
I really hope you are joking thinking China isn’t negotiating everything with everyone other than USA right now, starting with the very today publicly EU…
Even if dollar gets weaker, better to have less debts and more industrialization