What Russia is doing is horrific. I am not saying China is a kingdom of goodness. Rather I am saying the US does the same. We have invaded plenty and is supporting an invasion in the middle east right now. The problem we have with China isn't moral. We have plenty of allies who are morally bad. But they aren't challenging us economically unlike China.
> But, since the Nobel was established, China has been invaded...
> The US has been invaded zero times...
The number of external invasions is not a strong indicator of the number of Nobel Prizes, if you compare all countries, beyond just China or the US.
And as you mentioned, the Cultural Revolution greatly reduces the chance of Chinese Nobel, so internal events can take a large role. And Mao led to more deaths—not to mention destruction to science and culture—than external invasions in the last century combined.
> The civil wars also brought to power brutal dictatorships...
The dictatorship arguably hasn't ended, by taking another less brutal form. And to be precise, CCP brought the civil wars and its consequences, not the civil wars brought dictatorships.
I don't think even the Cultural Revolution or anything else Mao did had much of an effect on Nobel prize-worthy research, simply because there wasn't much to disrupt to begin with. In terms of education, the biggest change was in secondary school enrollment, which more than doubled during the Cultural Revolution before dropping back down, which I assume represents people staying students for longer instead of graduating, rather than an expansion of access. University education remained a rarity for long after that, only surpassing 10% enrollment in 2002: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-secondary-enrollm...
I guess we'll see Chinese scientists winning Nobels at a rate commensurate with other big countries in 20–40 years or so.
> I don't think even the Cultural Revolution or anything else Mao did had much of an effect on Nobel prize-worthy research, simply because there wasn't much to disrupt to begin with.
Count points:
- Intellectuals, academics, and teachers were persecuted, attacked, and killed by the youth (the Red Guards), in all schools and institutions in China.
- Search for “scholars killed during the cultural revolution”, or “list of scholars abnormally died in China during the cultural revolution” (or for a short list in Chinese https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/中华人民共和国被迫害人士列表#科学技术人士). This includes the leader of Two Bombs, One Satellite (nuclear weapon, ICBM, artificial satellite) 赵九章. Besides, those returned from overseas were considered traitors or spies, and just within the Chinese Academy of Sciences (top science institution), there are 229 scholars died due to the Cultural Revolution [1]. This destroyed the environment needed to do great science. Imagine if Yang went back to China in the early 1950s.
> I guess we'll see Chinese scientists winning Nobels at a rate commensurate with other big countries in 20–40 years or so.
Such predictions—Chinese scientists will win more science Nobels—has been made long ago. In 1998, “The Chinese-American Nobel Laureate Chen Ning Yang has also predicted that mainland scientists will win a prize within twenty years – even more than one, if the country’s economic development continues at its current rate.“ [2]
But reality shows otherwise, not until scientists and academics are respected in China. During COVID, politics overruled science, resulting in the Zero-COVID policy, which were brought down by widespread protests, not by science (counter evidence to the ineffectiveness of the Zero-COVID policy).
Unless you are implying that you predict a regime change by that time...
Of course the number of scholars killed is large in absolute terms and relative to the size of the Chinese research ecosystem at the time, but it's also small relative to the number of researchers worldwide at the time and to the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of Chinese scientists researching all kinds of things now, which is the result of explosive growth primarily over the past few decades.
Chen-Ning Yang was technically not wrong with his 1998 prediction, since Tu Youyou got 1/3 of the 2015 Nobel in medicine, but it didn't really make sense for him to link this to continued development, since the delay between discovery and award means that most of the prizes from 1998–2018 were for work that was already done before he made his prediction.
Over the same time frame, tertiary school enrollment went from 6.3% to 53.4%, and my 20–40-year prediction is based on a guess of how long it will take for the work of all those freshly-minted scientists to enter the range of consideration for a Nobel.
> Chen-Ning Yang was technically not wrong with his 1998 prediction, since Tu Youyou got 1/3 of the 2015 Nobel in medicine, but it didn't really make sense for him to link this to continued development, since the delay between discovery and award means that most of the prizes from 1998–2018 were for work that was already done before he made his prediction.
Agreed. Though to nitpick, the part on “even more than one, if the country’s economic development continues at its current rate” is technically wrong, if we just count Chinese Nobel scientists developed in Mainland China (only Tu Youyou).
Chen-Ning Yang was bullish on Chinese science, but reality did not deliver.
Shing-Tung Yau is as bullish on Chinese mathematics in the future, but even he admitted that China is still decades behind in mathematical research, due to systematic issue which ‘“places too much emphasis on material rewards” and tends to encourage young researchers to work for titles instead of scientific advancements’. [1]
[1]: https://archive.is/MRDlP "China has problems to solve before its mathematics research can rise above WWII levels, scholar says"
CCP has been posturing selectively in the name of its National Security. As Macro Rubio put it this month: “They like to play these games. They put out these translations where it says one thing in English and then it’s translated in a different – they use a different term in Mandarin”. [1] CCP shows different faces to different audiences selectively.
Rubio was sanctioned twice by CCP in 2020 for speaking up for human rights [2], but was quietly given a different Chinese surname in 2025, possibly to avoid the question of whether he is still under CCP’s sanction as the current US Secretary of State [3]. When asked, CCP gave vague answers [4].
For a similar story, Mike Pence when visiting Hong Kong last month called for China to release the imprisoned publisher Jimmy Lai [5]. Pence was mentioned in the National Security case of Jimmy Lai, which is to say Jimma Lai allegedly violated the National Security Law of Hong Kong by collaborating with foreign adversaries, in particular Mike Pence. But Mike Pence had no problem entering and exiting Hong Kong, only Jimma Lai had, despite the NSL applying to “anyone on Earth, regardless of nationality or location” [6], and had targeted US citizen living in the US before [7].
CCP postures selectively, with a very fluid definition of an enemy of the state, which often does not follow what they say in letter.
> The Journal, my supervisor said, did not want its reporters seen calling for greater freedoms—because, unlike in Western nations, it is not an established principle in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong ranked pretty high in Press Freedom: 18th in 2002, around 60th before 2014 (when Xi took power and the Umbrella protest broke out), then it went downhill and suddenly dropped to lower than 130th after the 2019 protest and the recent national security law [1].
It is an uphill battle under the rule of an authoritarian government which disregards freedom.
Summarizing one of the main points of the article:
> If you watch an anime or a TV series "about" fighting, … getting better at techniques you already know is often more effective than having a portfolio of hundreds of "moves".
> Relatedly, Joy Ebertz says:
> One piece of advice I got at some point was to amplify my strengths. … How can you turn something you’re good at into your superpower?
“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who had practiced one kick 10,000 times.” —— Bruce Lee
Native Cantonese speaker here, glad that you are interested in learning Cantonese.
I am working with other volunteers to improve Cantonese teaching, and wonder what difficulties you have encountered when learning Cantonese, and what materials or communities would be helpful for Cantonese learners.
Was Russia merely challenging American superiority?