Wikipedia is already dead, they just don't know it yet. They'll get Stackoverflowed.
The LLMs have already guaranteed their zombie end. The HN crowd will be comically delusional about it right up to the point where Wikimedia struggles to keep the lights on and has to fire 90% of its staff. There is no scenario where that outcome is avoided (some prominent billionaire will step in with a check as they get really desperate, but it won't change anything fundamental, likely a Sergey Brin type figure).
The LLMs will do to Wikipedia, what Wikipedia & Co. did to the physical encyclopedia business.
You don't have to entirely wipe out Wikipedia's traffic base to collapse Wikimedia. They have no financial strength what-so-ever, they burn everything they intake. Their de facto collapse will be extremely rapid and is coming soon. Watch for the rumbles in 2026-2027.
Wikipedia is not even in the game you are describing here. Wikipedia does not need billions of users clicking on ads to convince investors in yet another seed. They are an encyclopedia, and if fewer people will visit, they will still be an encyclopedia. Their costs are probably very strongly correlated with their number of visitors.
This. I'm really bothered by the almost cruel glee with which a lot of people respond to SO's downfall. Yeah, the moderation was needlessly aggressive. But it was successful at creating a huge repository of text-based knowledge which benefited LLMs greatly. If SO is gone, where will this come from for future programming languages, libraries, and tools?
You talk about news here like it's some irrefutable ether LLMs can tap into. Also I'd think newspapers and scientific papers cover extremely little of what the average person uses an LLM to search for.
This always feels to me like, an elephant in the room.
I’d love to read a knowledgeable roundup of current thought on this. I have a hard time understanding how, with the web becoming a morass of SEO and AI slop - with really no effort being put into to keeping it accurate - we’ll be able to train LLMs to the level we do today in the future.
By now they should be sitting on a billion dollars that safely yields a forever self-funding annual income ($30m-$50m) that would pay for all of their necessary expenses. They would no longer require any donations. It's grotesque and wildly irresponsible how they're managing the organization. If LLMs become the center of knowledge resources going forward (which they will), Wikipedia's funding will decline as their traffic declines, and they'll collapse into a spiral of cut-backs, as they operate on a present structure that burns most of its financial capability annually (this opens them up to a shock to the system on inflection, which is happening now).
LLM's can't just be "the center of knowledge" on their own, they need to learn and be trained if they are to be useful. A whole lot of LLM knowledge comes from Wikipedia to begin with.
The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge). And the US will stand-down and let China take Taiwan with no serious conflict in exchange for supply agreements. Not more than 5-10 years out at this point.
The US can't even remotely come close to stopping China in its own backyard today, in another 5-10 years they'll just have that much larger of a Navy. The US knows that's the situation. The US can supply a large one week bombing campaign against China and that's it, based on inventory levels. The US will exhaust its cruise missile supply instantly and the US has almost no meaningful drone-bomb supply. China can build cheap missiles by the tens of thousands perpetually, train them to the coast, and flatten Taiwan and any opponents as necessary. China is the only country that can sustain a multi-year WW2 style bombing campaign today, thanks to its manufacturing capabilities. Imagine them on a full war footing.
Yeah, I just don’t know that there’s the will to blow up the world economy for which flag flies over Taiwan.
China absorbing Taiwan (especially to Americans) just doesn’t seem like a radical, terrifying concept.
A Hong Kong style negotiated transfer might be best for the world - Taiwanese that want to leave can, the US can build up a parallel source of semiconductors, China gets Taiwan without firing a shot.
Is it better than the alternative? Do you think TSMC wants to see a Dongfeng or ATACMS headed for their fab, if the alternative is a negotiated handover?
> The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge)
USA has been strategically re-homing TSMC to the US mainland for a long time now. 30% of all 2nm and better technologies are slated to be produced in Arizona by 2030.
The real loser in all of this will be the EU which will be completely without the ability to produce or acquire chips. They'll just end up buying from China and USA, which will only further deepen their dependence on those countries.
Has the Ukraine situation not shown that the EU has relegated itself to second fiddle?
It’s too old, too complacent, and too broke. Even compared to the US and our level of discord, there’s no unity across divisions.
The US absurdly threatens Greenland, but Denmark/EU’s response is “Sanction US tech or kick out US military bases on Europe”, rather than be able to rattle a saber back and show some credible backbone.
Without San Diego based Cymer they can't move forward on their latest and greatest. As far as I know they still do R&D in San Diego even after purchase.
1. You can run decent local AI now - see /r/LocalLlama. You pay the electricity cost and hardware capex (which isn't that expensive for smaller models).
2. Chinese APIs like Moonshot and DeepSeek have extremely cheap pricing, with optional subscriptions that will grant you a fixed number of requests of any context size for under $10 a month. Claude Code is the bourgeois option, GLM-4.7 does quite well on vibe coding and is extremely cheap.
"According to the Government of Canada Job Bank, the median annual salary for a General Practitioner (GP) in Canada is $233,726 (CAD) as of January 23, 2024."
That's roughly $170,000 in the US. If you adjust for anything reasonable, such as GDP per capita or median income between the US & Canada, that $170k figure matches up very well with the median US general practitioner figure of around $180k-$250k (sources differ, all tend to fall within that range). The GPs in Canada may in fact be slightly better paid than in the US.
Humans are extraordinarily lazy sometimes too. A good LLM does not possess that flaw.
A doctor can also have an in-the-moment negatively impactful context: depression, exhaustion, or any number of life events going on, all of which can drastically impact their performance. Doctors get depressed like everybody else. They can care less due to something affecting them. These are not problems a good LLM has.
I mean, yeah. When people way saving the planet they mean saving humanity. That's exactly it. A barren rock does no one no good. I don't get it why people hang onto this expression, it's as if you heard that George Carlin bit and now that's your anchor to reality.
It's not like the dinosaurs had a save the earth campaign. Yet, before humans the rock had life forms that died out while the rock itself continued being a viable planet supporting life. If humans die off, the planet will continue on with life continuing in new ways.
For the past 50+ years there really has been a somewhat significant and quite influential body of people who genuinely want to preserve the planet’s ecosystem even at the expense of the people living on it.
$658 billion in op income for just six companies, growing at 10%+ per year. Maybe $8.5-$9 trillion in op income over the next decade. They have nothing else to spend it on other than over-priced share buybacks or dividends, most are under realistic anti-trust restrictions and can't freely buy major competitors. AI is an open field and they have the capital to burn.
Without all that financial firepower in the background driving everything none of it happens.
The largest resource use of AI over the next 50 years will be generating entertainment structures for humans. Productivity focused AI will be the most economically useful, however it'll be far less resource intensive than the entertainment generation (generally speaking, AI tasked with driving human pleasure).
World building alone will be at least a magnitude greater in resource use than all productivity-focused AI combined (including robotics + AI). Then throw in traditional media generation (audio, images, video, textual).
AI will be the ultimate sedative for humanity. We're going into the box and never coming back out and absolutely nothing can stop that from happening. For at least 95% of humanity the future value that AI offers in terms of bolstering pleasure-of-existence is far beyond the alternatives it's not really worth considering any other potential outcome, there will be no other outcome. Most of humanity will lose interest in the mundane garbage of dredging through day to day mediocrity (oh I know what you're thinking: but but but life isn't really that mediocre - yes, it definitely is, for the majority of the eight billion it absolutely is).
Out there is nothing, more nothing, some more nothing, a rock, some more nothing, some more of what we already know, nothing, more nothing, and a lot more nothing. In there will be anything you want. It's obvious what the masses will overwhelmingly choose.
The LLMs have already guaranteed their zombie end. The HN crowd will be comically delusional about it right up to the point where Wikimedia struggles to keep the lights on and has to fire 90% of its staff. There is no scenario where that outcome is avoided (some prominent billionaire will step in with a check as they get really desperate, but it won't change anything fundamental, likely a Sergey Brin type figure).
The LLMs will do to Wikipedia, what Wikipedia & Co. did to the physical encyclopedia business.
You don't have to entirely wipe out Wikipedia's traffic base to collapse Wikimedia. They have no financial strength what-so-ever, they burn everything they intake. Their de facto collapse will be extremely rapid and is coming soon. Watch for the rumbles in 2026-2027.
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